Morgan Stanley yana ganin dalilin da za a yi amfani da shi a cikin ƙarfe

Morgan Stanley vê razão para ser usado em minério de ferro

Wannan shi ne rabin farkon rabin na farko, kasar Sin tana samar da tan miliyan 27 a tashar jiragen ruwa a farkon rabin, amma ta fadada da tan miliyan 1 yanzu a karo na biyu.

Canjin yanayin samar da kayayyaki ya zo daidai da alamun cewa samar da karafa na kasar Sin ya ragu matuka yayin da aka fara gazawa da ragi. Sakamakon haka, fitar da kayan masarufi na membobin ƙungiyar ƙarfe da ƙarfe na kasar Sin ya kai matakin mafi ƙanƙanta tun watan Nuwamba a ƙarshen Yuli.

Duk da haka, Macquarie ya lura cewa tazarar karafa ta kasance a kwanan nan saboda ingantacciyar farashin ƙarfe da mafi kyawun farashin ƙarfe.

Amma masu dabarun dabarun Morgan Stanley na ci gaba da shakku game da yawan abubuwan da za a samu a tsakiyar wannan shekarar.

Marius van Straaten, masanin dabarun kayayyaki a Morgan Stanley, "Muna ganin nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan ƙarfe kaɗan ne daga baya a cikin shekara. "Duk wani reais na farashin tama na ƙarfe ya dogara da karban buƙatun kasar Sin."

Sanin cewa karfen amfani da ƙarshen na iya karuwa a cikin watanni masu zuwa cikin lokacin ginin faɗuwar rana, Morgan Stanley ya ce baya ga babban canji a gaba.

Gine-ginen kadarorin a kasar Sin, wanda yawanci ya kai kusan kashi 40% na bukatar karfen da ake amfani da shi na karshen amfani da shi, yana tafiyar hawainiya, ana fara kadarorin a farkon rabin shekara, kuma ya fara raguwa a kashi 4 cikin dari na Yuni. Duk da yake wannan sabon yanayin yana iya ƙunshe kuma ayyukan gidaje na iya yin ƙasa kaɗan zuwa samfuran yanzu, har yanzu babu alamun murmurewa," in ji van Straaten.

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Kuma yayin da ayyukan samar da ababen more rayuwa na iya magance wasu raunin da ake samu a bangaren kasar Sin, Morgan Stanley ya ce Beijing ta yi jinkirin sanya watanni na matakan kara kuzari.

Ƙarfafawa na iya ƙara buƙatar jiki, ma'ana ba za a ga fa'idar ba a lokacin gini bayan hutun Sabuwar Lunar na shekara mai zuwa.

A halin yanzu, samar da ƙarfe yana riƙe da kyau, tare da jigilar kayayyaki daga Ostiraliya sama da 4% kowace shekara da jigilar kayayyaki daga Brazil sama da 7% a wata-wata da 3% na shekara-shekara.

A sa'i daya kuma, samar da ma'adinan karfen cikin gida na kasar Sin yana da karfi, wanda ya karu da kashi 13 cikin dari a farkon rabin shekarar da ta gabata. Morgan Stanley Strategists Morgan Stanley Strategists sun ga manufar H130 zuwa H80, amma suna tsammanin hadarin tushe na $ XNUMX, matsakaicin farashin, haɗari, matsakaicin farashin, hadarin rayuwa, ƙananan $ XNUMX ton.

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