Yen guntun wando ya faɗi yayin da mafi kyawun cinikin FX na 2022 ya zo ƙarshe

Shorts de ienes desmoronam quando o comércio FX mais quente de 2022 chega ao fim

Haɓaka Taskoki

Zai yiwu mafi inganci birki na hannu a cikin kaifi ƙi na yen ya kasance raguwar yawan amfanin Baitul mali.

Yen yana da alaƙa ta kut-da-kut tare da ƙungiyoyin haɗin gwiwar gwamnatin Amurka, kamar yadda sauye-sauyen kima na BoJ a ƙasa ko da lokacin da Tarayyar Reserve ke yin nauyi sosai kan ƙawancen kadarorin Japan. Yanzu amfanin Baitul mali ya ja da baya daga mafi girman su yayin da yan kasuwa ke daidaita kididdigar kididdigar kididdigar kudaden Fed da kuma sake la'akari da shaidu kan fargabar koma bayan Amurka. Yukio Ishizuki, babban masani kan dabarun kudi a Daiwa a Tokyo ya ce. "Da alama tallace-tallacen Yen ya yi girma."

Abubuwan da ake samu na ma'auni na baitul mali sun faɗi sama da maki 60 daga kololuwar su a watan Yuni zuwa 2,82% a ranar Litinin. Yen ya ƙarfafa fiye da kashi 3 daga ƙananansa zuwa kusa da 135,25.

"Hakan ya biyo bayan cewa idan yanayin da ake samu a Amurka ya ragu to za a cire wasu daga cikin matsin lamba daga cikin kudin," in ji Jane Foley, kwararre a Rabobank a London. Tana tsammanin dala-yen za ta yi ciniki a matsayin ƙasa da 130 a cikin watanni masu zuwa.

Matsin makamashi

Kasar Japan mai shigo da mai ta yi ta tada hankali a farkon wannan shekarar yayin da danyen mai na Brent ya karu zuwa dala 140 kan ganga guda. Tare da farashin yanzu ƙasa da alamar $ 100, mummunan tasiri akan farashin shigo da kaya ya ragu.

Yuki Masujima na FX Digital Economics yana tsammanin gibin kasuwancin Japan ya ragu a watan Yuli kuma lissafin shigo da kasar ya karu a hankali saboda farashin kayayyaki masu rahusa.

"Sharuɗɗan makamashi-na-firgici yana raguwa, musamman idan kun dubi farashin mai," in ji Catril na NAB. Yayin da hauhawar farashin iskar gas da kuma hazaka kan lamunin shekaru 10 na Amurka su ne manyan hatsarin da ya kamata a lura da su, akwai yuwuwar dala- yen ta yi ciniki a kan matakan da ake ciki a yanzu kafin ta kai 130, in ji shi.

Haven Dawo

Har ila yau, kudin Japan yana samun koma baya a matsayin aljanna.

Yen ya tashi da kashi 1,3 a ranar Litinin da ta gabata yayin da 'yan kasuwa suka samu labarin cewa shugabar majalisar dokokin Amurka Nancy Pelosi za ta ziyarci Taiwan, lamarin da ya haifar da fargabar yiwuwar mayar da martani daga China. Ya karu sama da kashi 4 cikin dari a cikin makonni uku da suka gabata yayin da fargabar koma bayan tattalin arzikin duniya ke kara ruruwa.

"Yen da alama ya sake gano matsayin mafakarsa," in ji David. Forrester, babban masanin dabarun musayar waje a Credit Agricole CIB a Hong Kong. Ya kara da cewa bayanan tattalin arzikin Amurka mai rauni fiye da yadda ake zato yana hana fare a kan hauhawar farashin Fed, wanda "ya rage darajar dala ta samar da babban amfanin gona, yana ba da damar yen ta sake tabbatar da roko mai aminci," in ji shi.

Kudaden shinge da alama suna zabe da kafafunsu. Masu saka hannun jarin da aka yi amfani da su sun rage cinikin yen na bearish yen zuwa mafi ƙanƙanta tun Maris 2021, bayanan kwanan nan daga Commodity Futures ya nuna. Trading Hukumar.

Shakku ya kasance

Tabbas, ba kowa bane ke yin fare cewa babban yen gajeriyar siyar ya ƙare.

Hasashen kasuwannin Dovish na farashin dogon lokaci na Fed yana da alama ya yi hannun riga da ra'ayin babban bankin kansa kuma ya fi karfi - bayanan aikin Amurka na juma'a sama da da ake tsammani ya ɗaga haƙƙin baitul mali, tunatarwa cewa matsin lamba kan shaidu bai ƙare gaba ɗaya ba. , "Ƙarin matsin lamba na iya zama mai yiwuwa" kamar yadda BoJ ke jingina ga manufofin sarrafa yawan amfanin ƙasa a lokacin Kuroda, masanin dabarun Isabella Rosenberg ya rubuta a cikin bayanin kula. Yamamoto ya ce kasadar juzu'a ba lallai ba ne ta nuna siyan yen yen a matsayin mafaka, ba ko kadan ba saboda yakin da ake yi tsakanin Amurka da China na iya kai wa sansanonin Amurka hari a Japan.

"Idan tashin hankali ya karu da gaske, ba zai zama godiyar yen mara haɗari ba," in ji masanin dabarun Tokyo. "Yana da sigar siyar da yen."

Amma wannan ba shine ya hana masu dabarun kamar Foley ba, waɗanda ke yin la'akari da mafi munin asara shine yen yen a matsayin masu tayar da hankali kan sauƙaƙe manufofin kuɗi.

"Sai da wani karin hauhawar yawan amfanin da Amurka ke samu, mai yiwuwa yiwuwar ganin wani yunkuri fiye da 140 ya wuce," in ji ta.

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